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News Release from: Mike Page - editor's feature articles
Edited by the Manufacturingtalk Editorial
Team on 06 November 2003
Gauging European machine tool industry's
future
During the last two years, the MANTYS initiative, co-ordinated by the CECIMO, revealed some of its findings during the EMO machine tool fair in Milan, Italy.
During the last two years, the Manufacturing Technologies - or MANTYS - initiative, supported by the European Commission Fifth Framework Programme and co-ordinated by the European Committee for Co-operation of the Machine Tool Industries (CECIMO) headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, revealed some of its findings during the EMO machine tool fair in Milan, Italy Three reports were presented : * 'Business Cycle Factors' (John Walker, UK1s Oxford Economic Forecast unit)
This article was originally published on Manufacturingtalk on 29 Oct 2001 at 8.00am (UK)
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* 'Economic Impact of technological Innovation of Equipment' by Raouf Boucekkine and Bruno Cruz (IRES - research centre of the department of Economics of the Universit? catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium).
* 'Product Innovation by End-Users' by Michael Page (editor, Manufacturingtalk Walker reinforced the cyclical nature of the industry's fortunes by illustrating machine tool market demand during 1980-2003.
He said that for the machine tool industry to plan and prepare for these cycles it is imperative that developments in client sectors are monitored closely.
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He pointed out - and illustrated this with graphs - that output data for the client sectors are available on a timely basis and cycles in investment spending are typically related to cycles in output.
The big exception, said Walker, is the automotive industry - the largest purchaser of machine tools.
Here, it is important to monitor model cycles in order to provide a more complete picture of automotive industry machine tool demand.
Walker said that the larger EU machine tool producers in Germany, Italy, Spain, France and UK have constructed economic models that relate new orders received to clients' output characteristics.
He felt that long-term forecasts could be made by including forecasts of client sector output into the economic models.
To gauge how future product innovation in the automotiove and aerospace industries might effect future machine tool demand was the main aim of the project 'Product Innovation by End-Users'.
Information gathered was based on interviews and published material searches carried out in the automotive and aerospace industries by IWB Munich, Germany, SYMAP (French Machine Tool Association, Paris), UCIMU (Italian Machine Tool Association, Milan) and Michael Page (Cambridge, UK).
Page's project findings pointed to more fundemental changes occuring in automotiuve product design the coming two decades.
These changes could make an impact on the character and volume of machine tool demand - particularly metal-cutting production machines - but difficult to time.
The problem with carrying out such an investigation is that no OEM - or Tier 1 supplier for that matter - is going to tell anyone about major changes before a new product launch! Consequently, any timing referred to in the report is based on the 'technological readiness' of the suppliers'/OEMs' product developments, and not on the Ocommercial readiness1.
Even so, thanks to the cooperation of a few OEMs and Tier 1s, the report considered that the arrival of on-board 36V or 42V electrical systems was likely to produce the biggest changes.
The automotive industry has no precise timing, but 2007-2010 is likely.
In engines, there is a 'chicken-and-egg' situation, in that the development of the camless IC engine (camshafts and associated mechanical equipment replaced by computer-operated electric solenoid or hydraulically-operated valves) could bring 15-20% more efficiency.
That efficiency could be used for a smaller engine to generate more power to the wheels, or, be used to generate the 36V/42V electricity instead of using the added manufacturing and assembly complication of an auxiliary power unit.
42V systems would facilitate the wider introduction of 'drive-by-wire' systems (computer managed electric actuators control braking, steering, transmission and even suspensions - ousting on-board hydraulics systems, pedal boxes and traditional steering systems).
That 'drive-by-wire' will be 'technology-ready' by 2007 does not mean it will be introduced - as legislation and insurance approvals have to be met.
General introduction of 'drive-by-wire' and camless engines could bring about a reduction in demand for metal cutting production machine tools by some 30%.
The first major introduction of camless IC engines is likely to be in the truck industry.
On the topic of metalforming, European car producers are moving ahead with high strength steels (steels with an UTS exceeding 200N/mm2), and cars like Volkswagen's new 'Golf 5' will have a 90%+ high strength steel content.
But plastics and aluminium continue to chip away at steel usage.
On one hand, hydraulic presses are needed for material flow control in high strength steels and aluminium, while plastics injection moulding machines grow in size.
Interviewees pointed to 2010-2012 when possibly the prices of aluminium, magnesium alloys, plastics and composites could well become competitive with steels in volume car production.
The report noted that the general introduction of the fuel cell and digital electric drive as an automotive prime mover could decimate metal cutting production machine tool demand - by as much as 50%.
When this will happen is another matter.
Interviewees, reported Page, predicted 2020 - 2030, but two OEMs thought volume produced fuel cell powered all-electric cars could be as close as 2010! In aerospace, apart from the wider introduction of electron beam welding (EBW) into turbine engine manufacture from the 1970s onwards, and the substitution of laser welding for TIG welding, engine manufacture with the aid of CNC had speeded up, but many plants still operated traditional machine shop layouts.
With the desire to achieve the '40-day engine' (instead of 100 days or more, door-to-door), OEMs realised that components sat around too much between machine operations waiting for inspection! The introduction of 'multi-tasking' or 'multi-function' machines, combined with cellular layouts, is revolutionising engine parts machining.
The OEMs and their suppliers want more - not just turning, milling, drilling - but machine + deburr, hard-turn+grind+deburr, machine + laser treatment - and so on.
Added on to these requirements are direct links with CAD/CAM and IT systems, plus more machine diagnostics and in-cycle monitoring.
Engine design will see hot and super plastic forming of engine parts coming in 2005, laser and/or friction stir welding of wing stringers up to 2010 and, thereafter, the introduction of metal matrix composites into items like Blings (blade integrated rings).
2015 will see wider use of welding in civil aircraft structures.
Yet, 2003 has already seen the introduction of an executive jet in the US making wide use of friction stir welding in fuselage construction.
To conclude, Bruno Cruz pointed out the failure of various modelling techniques to predict machine tool industry investment.
He used a company-level database to show that investment in new technology is a "lumpy activity" in the Spanish economy.
He said that technological progress appears to be investment-specific, and that the adoption of new technologies and the replacement of old machines seems to matter in the decision of investment.
He added that companies with a higher capital:labor ratio and higher fraction of skilled workers seem to adopt CNC and robotic systems more readily.
Certainly there will be changes in the character of machine tool demand over the next two decades.
Of particular interest is the growth in mold and die machining requirements and also what influence those rapid prototyping systems - for metals and non-metals - will have, as some are able to batch produce usable, near-net-shape components.
The proceedings of the MANTYS public meeting - "Future Trends of the Machine Tool Industry", which includes reports on the various workshops staged during the conference in Milan - are available from CECIMO.
Visit www.cecimo.be and www.mantys.org.
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